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WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 27, 2008) - A pair of Defense Department
reports published today on Afghanistan describe progress with
regard to the country's security and national forces.
The studies, which analyze results of Operation Enduring Freedom
through March, were mandated by Congress and represent the first
installment of what are slated to be semi-annual progress
updates.
The Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in
Afghanistan depicts a "fragile" security environment in much of the
country. It concludes, however, that coalition forces'
counterinsurgency approach has demonstrated how a hybrid of
military and nonmilitary resources can create stability and connect
Afghan citizens to their government.
Underscoring the fragility of situation in Afghanistan and its
tendency for rapid change is the fact that some of the report's
assertions about security success -- based on information available
several months ago and earlier -- no longer are as solid as once
believed.
For instance, the report highlights Khowst province in eastern
Afghanistan as an example of a once-troubled region transformed by
counterinsurgency operations.
"Khowst was once considered ungovernable and one of the most
dangerous provinces in Afghanistan," the report states. "Today,
tangible improvements in security, governance, reconstruction, and
development are being made."
But Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates yesterday expressed
concern that attacks in NATO's Regional Command East section of
Afghanistan, which includes Khowst province, rose 40 percent from
January to May.
Gates, in a news conference yesterday, attributed the rise in
violence to militants using Pakistan's North West Frontier Province
as a staging ground for launching attacks in Afghanistan. But the
report does not identify threats emanating from the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border region -- which Gates called a recent
phenomenon -- as a primary security challenge.
Challenges outlined in the report include the narcotics trade
and the Taliban. These militants regrouped after their fall from
power and have coalesced into a resilient insurgency, according to
the report, which notes a rise in insurgent violence in 2007. More
that 6,500 people died as a result of suicide attacks, roadside
bombs and combat-related violence, it said.
Despite coalition success in combating them, Taliban operatives
are likely to maintain or even increase the scope and pace of
terrorist attacks and bombings in 2008, the report concludes.
"The Taliban will challenge the control of the Afghan government
in rural areas, especially in the south and east," it states. "The
Taliban will also probably attempt to increase its presence in the
west and north."
The security report credits a plus-up of U.S. forces over the
spring with reinforcing Afghan and international forces' momentum,
and for enabling the Afghan national security forces to grow
quickly - from 70,000 to 80,000 army personnel by 2010.
Meanwhile, the report states, the deployment of a U.S. Marine
Corps Marine Air Ground Task Force is bolstering the ability of
NATO's International Security Assistance Forces to maneuver troops
in Regional Command South.
The other security and stability highlights outlined in the
report are:
-- The Afghan National Army had taken the lead in more than 30
significant operations at the time of the report, and the force has
demonstrated increasing competence, effectiveness and
professionalism.
-- Since 2001, Afghanistan has made significant progress
rebuilding its national political institutions. Afghans wrote and
passed a new constitution in 2004, 8.1 million people voted in the
nation's first presidential election, and 6.4 million voters helped
reestablish the National Assembly after 32 years without a
legislature.
-- The gross domestic product, per capita income and foreign
direct investment all are up since 2001. Afghanistan's domestic
revenues have grown considerably, and international reserves have
nearly doubled since 2004.
Key points from the report titled, "United States Plan for
Sustaining the Afghanistan National Security Forces" include:
-- The capabilities of the Afghan National Army are improving
steadily, with a long-term army posture that also may include a
more robust army air corps capability and a larger force.
-- The Afghan National Police force is making steady progress,
but its capabilities still lag behind those of the national army.
The current police force has not been sufficiently reformed or
developed to a level at which it can adequately perform its
security and policing mission; however, coalition governments are
working to improve the police capabilities, with a target force
size of 82,000 personnel.
-- An independent, capable army and police are critical to
counterinsurgency effort, thus it is crucial that coalition
partners dedicate the necessary resources and personnel to ensure
that the mission to develop the Afghan national security forces is
a success.
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