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WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 3, 2009) - The Pentagon
is prepared to leave fighting forces in Iraq for as long as a
decade despite an agreement between the United States and Iraq that
would bring all American troops home by 2012, the top U.S. Army
officer said Tuesday.
Gen. George Casey, the Army chief of staff, said the world
remains dangerous and unpredictable, and the Pentagon must plan for
extended U.S. combat and stability operations in two wars. "Global
trends are pushing in the wrong direction," Casey said. "They
fundamentally will change how the Army works."
He spoke at an invitation-only briefing to a dozen journalists
and policy analysts from Washington-based think-tanks. He said his
planning envisions combat troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for a
decade as part of a sustained U.S. commitment to fighting extremism
and terrorism in the Middle East.
Casey's calculations about force levels are related to his
attempt to ease the brutal deployment calendar that he said would
"bring the Army to its knees."
Casey would not specify how many combat units would be split
between Iraq and Afghanistan. He said U.S. ground commander Gen.
Ray Odierno is leading a study to determine how far U.S. forces
could be cut back in Iraq and still be effective. Casey said his
comments about the long war in Iraq were not meant to conflict with
administration policies.
President Barack Obama plans to bring U.S. combat forces home
from Iraq in 2010, and the United States and Iraq have agreed that
all American forces would leave by 2012. Although several senior
U.S. officials have suggested Iraq could request an extension, the
legal agreement the two countries signed last year would have to be
amended for any significant U.S. presence to remain.
As recently as February, Defense Secretary Robert Gates
reiterated the U.S. commitment to the agreement worked out with
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
"Under the Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government,
I intend to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2011,"
Gates said during an address at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina. "We
will complete this transition to Iraqi responsibility, and we will
bring our troops home with the honor that they have earned."
The United States currently has about 139,000 troops in Iraq and
52,000 in Afghanistan.
Obama campaigned on ending the Iraq war as quickly as possible
and refocusing U.S. resources on what he called the more important
fight in Afghanistan.
That will not mean a major influx of U.S. fighting forces on the
model of the Iraq "surge," however. Obama has agreed to send about
21,000 combat forces and trainers to Afghanistan this year.
Combined with additional forces approved before former President
George W. Bush left office, the United States is expected to have
about 68,000 troops in Afghanistan by the end of this year. That's
about double the total at the end of 2008, but Obama's top military
and civilian advisers have indicated the number is unlikely to grow
much beyond that.
Casey said several times that he wasn't the person making
policy, but the military was preparing to have a fighting force
deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan for years to come. Casey said his
planning envisions 10 combat brigades plus command and support
forces committed to the two wars.
When asked whether the Army had any measurement for knowing how
big it should be, Casey responded, "How about the reality
scenario?"
This scenario, he said, must take into account that "we're going
to have 10 Army and Marine units deployed for a decade in Iraq and
Afghanistan."
Casey stressed that the United States must be ready to take on
sustained fights in the Middle East while meeting other
commitments.
Casey reiterated statements made by civilian and military
leaders that the situation in Afghanistan would get worse before it
gets better. "There's going to be a big fight in the South," he
said.
Casey added that training of local police and military in
Afghanistan was at least a couple years behind the pace in Iraq,
and it would be months before the U.S. deployed enough trainers.
There's a steeper curve before training could be effective in
Afghanistan, requiring three to five years before Afghanis could
reach the "tipping point" of control.
He also said the U.S. had to be careful about what assets get
deployed to Afghanistan. "Anything you put in there would be in
there for a decade," he said.
As Army chief of staff, Casey is primarily responsible for
assembling the manpower and determining assignments. He insisted
the Army's 1.1-million size was sufficient even to handle the
extended Mideast conflicts.
"We ought to build a pretty effective Army with 1.1 million
strength," Casey said. He also noted that the Army's budget had
grown to $220 billion from $68 billion before the Sept. 11, 2001,
terrorist attacks.
He said the Army is two-thirds of the way through a complete
overhaul from the Cold War-era force built around tanks and
artillery to today's terrorist-driven realities. The Army has
become more versatile and quicker by switching from division-led
units to brigade-level command.
Casey said the Army has moved from 15-month battlefield
deployments to 12 months. His goal is to move rotations by 2011 to
one year in the battlefield and two years out for regular Army
troops, and one year in the battlefield and three years out for
reserves. He called the current one-year-in-one-year-out cycle
"unsustainable."
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